Weekly Roundup for July 26 – Aug. 1: Meeting between mediators, LRA delayed
The Good: The UN reports that displaced persons are leaving IDP camps in northern Uganda at a "steady" rate – over 130,000 Acholi have returned to their homes this year alone.
The Bad: A meeting between LRA leader Joseph Kony and mediators scheduled for this week fell through. South Sudan government officials cited "logistical problems" in announcing it was postponed until August 12th.
The Ugly: Impatience with the peace process is strengthening regional appeals for a military "solution," but prospects for responsible and credible military pressure on the LRA remain elusive.
The Peace Process:
- Chief mediator Reik Machar was scheduled to meet with LRA leader Joseph Kony this week, but the meeting is reportedly delayed until August 12th for logistical reasons. LRA representative David Matsanga claimed that Kony cancelled the meeting because food was not made available at the meeting location for LRA rebels.
- The UN Security Council reports that President Kabila of the DR Congo is increasingly impatient with efforts to peacefully end the LRA conflict and deems it "necessary" to pursue a military option against the rebels. However, UN peacekeepers there have limited capacity to support any operations against the LRA.
Situation on the Ground:
- While displaced persons are returning home in northern Uganda, instability in the wider region has left 10.5 million people displaced within their countries, a jump of over 400,000 since the beginning of the year.
- Uganda's top official for disaster preparedness warned that one million people in northeastern Uganda are at risk of starvation. Crop failure, extreme weather and armed conflict have made it one of the most food insecure regions in Africa.
- Officials said that conflicts over land are the leading cause of violent death in the Teso region of northern Uganda, spurring the Ugandan military to launch an operation to collect illegal guns there.
International Response:
- US presidential hopeful Barack Obama became the first major party candidate to make the conflict in northern Uganda a campaign issue, sketching out his position on the issue in a letter to Resolve Uganda's constituents.
- With the future of the peace process uncertain, the risk of the US and international community disengaging from concerted efforts to end the conflict is real. But renewed international leadership has the potential to pressure Kony to accept a peace deal, keep rash military plans in check and ensure that northern Ugandans can focus on the business of rebuilding their lives.