Weekly Roundup for April 19-25: Peace "talks" on new timeline, but is LRA serious?

The Good: As local leaders continue working to salvage the Final Peace Agreement, the U.S., Canada, EU and Japan issued statements urging Joseph Kony to sign and committing to help implement the agreement.

The Bad: Fresh allegations that the LRA have abducted over 350 people over the last three months are deeply alarming and suggest the rebels may be rebuilding their military capacity.

The Ugly: Nearly half of the 1.8 million people internally displaced by this conflict have returned home, but new reports show that conditions in some return sites have become worse than displacement camps, with a lack of access to clean water and sanitation, as well as police.

The Peace Process:

• Since LRA leader Joseph Kony postponed signing the Final Peace Agreement (on 10 April), local leaders and the mediator have resumed direct dialogue with the rebel leader after months of silence.

• Traditional and cultural leaders are currently working with Parliament to clarify the mechanisms of the Accountability & Reconciliation Agreement, which will then hopefully be presented to Kony in early May under their new timeline.

• Through his new chief negotiator, Dr. James Obita, Kony has signaled he wants guarantees for his personal and financial security, but is still committed to peace.

• However, sources say Kony is also being dissuaded from signing by a few spoilers from the Diaspora and Khartoum.

• Meanwhile, Amnesty Intl. released a statement this week, accusing the rebels of abducting 350 people from across the region over the last three months. A media report suggested that these new abductees are building the LRA's military capacity, which they estimate now at 1200 fighters.

Situation on the Ground:

• A new update by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reports that the future of IDPs in northern Uganda remains uncertain with the peace process delayed and deteriorating conditions at return sites.

• IDMC further reports that the one million people still displaced are hesitant to begin returning home until a final peace agreement is signed and they have guarantees for basic service and security.

• Related, the Ugandan government's $606-million Peace Recovery Development Plan was launched last year, but its implementation remains delayed.

• This week, the government also launched its development plan for the Karamoja region of northeastern Uganda, which remains deeply impoverished and awash with small arms. As we have written many times before, peace and stability in Karamoja is critical for lasting peace in northern Uganda.

International Response:

• In response to the delayed signing, a donor group of Canada, European countries and Japan issued a joint statement urging Kony to show his commitment to peace by signing the Final Peace Agreement.

• The U.S. State Department followed with its own statement, urging Kony to sign and committing to help implement the agreement.

• These statements are very positive, but they must be followed by tangible diplomacy to support local leaders and ensure military aggression is avoided until ongoing peace initiatives have been exhausted.