Weekly Roundup for April 12-18: Dialogue with Kony persists, but pessimism grows

The Good: Despite the continued delay, traditional elders are dialoguing with rebel leader Joseph Kony and hope still remains that he can be creatively induced to sign the final peace deal.

The Bad: Reports of in-fighting among the LRA ranks, leaving nine dead, and fresh allegations of abductions have led many to suggest that the rebels are far from serious about peace.

The Ugly: The latest UN humanitarian update shows that still over one million people remain displaced in northern Uganda, caught between hope and fear of what their future holds.

The Peace Process:

• All eyes have remained on LRA leader Joseph Kony after he delayed the scheduled signing of the Final Peace Agreement (FPA) last Thursday. It first surfaced that Kony is seeking further guarantees for his safety and financial security before he signs. Then it emerged that differences over the agreement had caused in-fighting between LRA factions last week, leaving nine dead, including indicted commander Okot Odhiambo.

• On Monday, President Museveni traveled to Juba to assess the future of the negotiations. Though declining to state the next course of action, Museveni accused Kony of not being serious about the peace process.

• Meanwhile, the Cessation of Hostilities agreement expired on Tuesday. Government officials have said they continue hoping for peace, but have began planning for military contingencies, to the concern of some civil society peace advocates

• Nevertheless, the chief mediator Riek Machar has remained at Ri-Kwangba and said there is still hope Kony will eventually sign the FPA. Traditional elders have remained in dialogue with Kony, trying to encourage him to sign, but they need greater logistical and political support.

• Kony has reportedly now set a timeline that he will personally meet with northern Ugandan leaders April 26 to May 1 and then meet Machar thereafter.

Regional Impacts:

• Fresh allegations that the LRA have abducted "55 children in southern Sudan in recent weeks" and "200 civilians in DR Congo last month" have at least underlined the threat that the rebels at large pose to the wider region. If true, these are egregious violations of the cessation of hostilities and call for immediate efforts to protect civilians.

• A series of recent news reports have exposed the continuing violence, threat of famine and extreme poverty in the Karamoja region in northeast Uganda. Many analysts compare Karamoja's current situation to northern Uganda fifteen years ago, which is good cause for alarm.

International Response:

• The U.S. said this week that it would consider removing the LRA from its terrorist list if Kony signs and abandons his rebellion. In the coming weeks, such creative inducements will be crucial to support the efforts of northern Ugandan leaders to salvage the final peace agreement.

• That is why we released a new press statement this week, titled "With Caution and Creativity, Hope Remains for an Imminent End to Uganda's 22-Year War." We urge outside-of-the-box creative thinking and international support for ongoing direct dialogue with Kony. However, if the rebel leader ultimately refuses, the Ugandan government should still unilaterally implement key components of the FPA that are not conditional on LRA compliance.