Weekly Roundup for March 22-28: Historic final peace deal signing slated for next week

The Good: After settling final disputes this week, both the Ugandan government and LRA are slated to sign the Final Peace Agreement next week on April 5th, a historic milestone for northern Uganda.

The Bad: Though modifying their position to sign the final deal, the rebels still insist they will not disarm until International Criminal Court arrest warrants are suspended, possibly previewing a post-agreement impasse.

The Ugly: Speculation about rebel leader Joseph Kony's intentions remains a distraction from the real imperative of the peace process: enabling war survivors to leave the displacement camps, articulate their grievances and rebuild their lives.

The Peace Process:

• On Tuesday, the parties in Juba signed the implementation timetable and final documents paving the way for the signing of the Final Peace Agreement (FPA) next week. The date for signing was pushed back to April 5th.

• After long insisting that ICC warrants for the arrest of top rebel leaders would have to be removed prior to the signing of the FPA, the LRA negotiating team modified the sequencing of their position this week. However, the rebels still declared that they will not disarm until the Ugandan government approaches the UN Security Council about suspending the indictments.

• Northern Ugandan leaders who traveled to Juba earlier this week were important in encouraging the LRA to modify its position and are now working to establish the necessary mechanisms to enable deferral of the ICC indictments.

• Meanwhile, the Government has urged Kony to sign the FPA in person in Juba next week, but the LRA lead negotiator says Kony intends to sign from the Ri-Kwangba assembly site in southern Sudan. The Government has said it will sign the deal with or without Kony's presence.

Regional Impacts:

• Continued skirmishes in the oil rich Abyei region of southern Sudan expose tensions that could eventually plunge Sudan back war. There has been some speculation that the Sudanese government might re-establish its support of the LRA to destabilize the upcoming 2009 elections. These dynamics will be hugely important in whether the FPA gets implemented and peace in northern Uganda endures.

International Response:

• In a welcome move this week, the U.S. State Department issued a major press statement urging the parties to sign the FPA and committing to help implement the agreement through the proposed Oversight Forum. Such commitment by the U.S. and others to "guarantee" the FPA is crucial. Too often, the international community grows fatigued and fails to invest in post-conflict peacebuilding. This is in part why nearly 50% of all peace agreements signed collapse within five years of signing.

• To that end, we released a press release this week stating that, with a final peace agreement likely just days away, the international community has a critical role to play in ensuring the Ugandan government and LRA live up to their obligations.