Juba Peace Talks mark 1-year anniversary of progress, yet challenges remain

Today marks the one-year anniversary of the start of the Juba peace talks between the Government of Uganda and Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). Last July, we wrote: "The involvement of such a strategic third party mediator, coupled with the apparent openness of the LRA and GoU to end the war, and mounting pressure on all parties to resolve the conflict, gives this process serious potential to succeed in both ending active violence and providing a framework to address deeper social and political grievances." One year later, though an agreement has not yet been reached, that potential remains and significant progress has been made.

First, of the five agenda items of the negotiations, the parties have signed agreements on three. In August, the parties reached the breakthrough Cessation of Hostilities agreement, later renewed, that has brought relative calm to northern Uganda for the first time in years. As we reported in April, there have been almost no attacks or abductions since in Uganda and the numbers of child "night commuters" have fallen to their lowest levels in a decade. Moreover, an estimated 461,000 displaced people have returned home, and for those remaining in camps, many have begun farming.

The second agreement, signed in May, was on 'comprehensive solutions to the war'. Then, surprising most observers, the parties quickly agreed in June to an agreement on the contentious third agenda item: 'reconciliation and accountability.' This agreement provides a framework to use both traditional and formal justice mechanisms to deal with war crimes committed during the conflict's 21-year history. It further sets in motion an attempt by the parties to circumvent the warrants issued for the top four commanders of the LRA by the International Criminal Court (ICC). The LRA leadership has said it will not sign a peace agreement until the ICC warrants are withdrawn. Equally, the ICC Prosecutor has spoken against withdrawing the indictments. Yet, if these politics can be managed to reach a suitable deal, agreement #3 presents a framework to bring a final agreement one step closer.

When peace talks resume later this month, the parties are left with two agenda items: 'disarmament, demobilization and reintegration' and 'permanent ceasefire'. The framework for both of these has largely already been established, but the parties will need to be trustful of the processes. The importance of external actors to build confidence and ensure accountability will be critical. The presence of observers from five other African countries, along with the African Union ceasefire monitors, will help to this end. Yet, the U.S. government, thus far relying on private consultations with the GoU, could assist by showing more public support and commitment to the peace process.

Finally, though we celebrate what Juba has achieved and is poised to achieve in the months ahead, we cannot lose sight of the priority: peace and return home for the people of northern Uganda and the wider region. Though many have returned home, over 1 million people in Uganda remain in squalid displacement camps without access to basic resources and services. In southern Sudan, there continue to be attacks and abductions, reportedly by LRA elements. Across the borders, there is still a generation of children who have known abduction and never peace, and an entire population forced to endure the lasting legacy of over two decades of conflict. Even if an agreement is reached, the will to address these issues will be critical. The promise of Juba will not be fulfilled by a piece of paper, but by meaningful peace for all people.