Negotiations, No-Shows and New Developments - Now What?

A Memo to Resolve Uganda's Supporters
From: Alison Jones, Director of Advocacy (alison@resolveuganda.org)

[Click here to download the full document]

January 28, 2009 

Read below to find out what happened to the peace process and where we go from here:

  • What happened?: Although the Juba peace process created a ceasefire that led to a dramatic reduction in violence, abductions, and displacement in northern Uganda, it was ultimately unsuccessful in permanently ending Africa’s longest-running war. Click here to read more.
  • What's happening now?: After one and a half years of relative calm during the negotiations, LRA forces have now resumed systematic attacks, causing panic throughout the region. Click here to read more.
  • What next?: We are now advocating for the US government to get behind a viable plan to apprehend Joseph Kony. It's the first step on the straightest path to peace that exists today. Click here to read more.

 

What happened?

Although the Juba peace process created a ceasefire that led to a dramatic reduction in violence, abductions, and displacement in northern Uganda, it was ultimately unsuccessful in permanently ending Africa’s longest-running war.

After two years of negotiations between the Ugandan government and representatives of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a deal was finalized in April of 2008.  But when a meeting was arranged for LRA leader Joseph Kony to sign the Final Peace Agreement, he was a no-show. The mediators tried repeatedly to secure his signature, but as the summer wore on, it became clear that Kony still felt that he had more preferable alternatives and that he had decided to pursue them.

Instead of signing the peace agreement, Kony established new bases in the forests of Garamba Park of eastern Congo, a few hundred miles from Uganda, and began employing his familiar tactics of abducting children once again, this time from remote villages near his bases.

As the prospect of Kony signing the agreement appeared increasingly dim, the US supported the deployment of Congolese military units around LRA bases in an attempt to contain the rebel group. But by that point, it was too late. By leaving him with a backdoor option, the US and international community had failed to put enough pressure on Kony to get him to sign the agreement. In September 208, LRA forces began the latest chapter in the long history of this war, launching large-scale attacks and abductions throughout northeastern Congo.

 

What’s happening now?
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After one and a half years of relative calm during the negotiations, LRA forces have now resumed systematic attacks, causing panic throughout the region.  Since September, the LRA has abducted close to 500 children and brutally massacred over 1000 people in the DRC and South Sudan. News of new attacks and abductions is now reaching our office almost daily.

In December, the Ugandan government – with the backing of the US government and direct support from the Congolese and South Sudanese – responded with a surprise offensive on the LRA’s bases in the Congo. Though the attack was reportedly aimed at capturing Kony and delivering a “final blow” to the LRA, it indiscriminately endangered abducted women and children and has failed to meet its objectives. Moreover, it sent LRA forces on a new rampage of violent attacks throughout the region.

Though the military operation continues, the chances of it successfully capturing Kony are slim. Ugandan forces are chasing small bands of LRA fighters and abductees, without the capacity to effectively locate and apprehend top LRA leaders. In the meantime, children in LRA captivity and civilian communities in the area are paying the price.

 

What next?

We now face what is essentially a hostage situation. With Kony’s refusal to sign the peace agreement and his decision to continue committing brutal atrocities throughout the region, it is time for the US and international community to get behind a serious effort to attain his arrest.

Without US leadership, it won’t happen. Regional governments lack the capacity to do it on their own, and the alternatives are to either continue supporting the indiscriminate offensive that endangers countless LRA captives and innocent civilians, or to seek a return to the negotiating table without indication that Kony would either sign this time or stop his brutal attacks.

That’s why we are now advocating for the US government to develop a viable strategy to apprehend Kony. Our government has the power to see him arrested by committing the resources and diplomatic leadership needed to develop a targeted military operation that also involves regional forces, the U.N., and our partners in Europe.

Any strategy to arrest Kony has to be designed to avoid harming LRA captives and civilian populations. If such a plan succeeds, it will be possible to implement the peace agreement and convince remaining LRA fighters to return home. Even if he is not ultimately arrested, developing such an operation could pressure Kony to finally sign and adhere to the peace agreement.

It is the first step on the straightest path to peace that exists today, and we think that we can make it happen. But first, it has to be more of a priority for our leaders.

That’s where you come in.  We’re going to need every man, woman and child who thinks that the kids caught in the crossfire of this war deserve a chance at peace to speak up and say so. It‘s going to require getting this crisis past the political tipping point, from a fleeting fascination to a permanent priority.  Until Kony is behind bars and the kids in this region can sleep safely, we have work to do. There is no one else and no other way. Peace is still within reach.

Q & A

Why didn't Kony sign?

Kony didn’t sign the peace agreement for two key reasons. First, he feared his fate once he came out of the bush. The peace agreement mandated investigations into crimes committed during the war and trials for those most guilty to be conducted in Ugandan courts. Kony didn’t want to be subjected to such a process. He likely also feared being sent to The Hague to face outstanding warrants from the International Criminal Court, or even attempts on his life by some of his victims or their families.

Second, Kony didn’t sign because the US and the international community did not adequately close off his other options. Kony was therefore able to reject the peace agreement and face no immediate consequences. He found territory in the Congo that was ripe for his forces to move into.

What is the future of the peace process?

Though the talks broke down when Kony didn’t sign, the Final Peace Agreement – or FPA, as it is known – is a landmark document that could still form the basis for lasting peace in northern Uganda. If our government helps pressure LRA leader Joseph Kony, he may still opt to sign the agreement and come out peacefully. Since he was the spoiler to the success of the peace process, his arrest would also likely lead to the implementation of the Agreement. In the meantime, the Ugandan government and international donors are exploring how to implement parts of the Agreement that don’t necessarily require the LRA leader’s adherence, such as stipulations regarding local reconciliation processes and restoration of schools, clinics, and other basic services in areas where they were destroyed by the war.

What is the role of the International Criminal Court?

For those of you who have followed northern Uganda closely, you know that this is a hot topic. On the one hand, the ICC warrants bring much-needed international attention to the pursuit of justice for the crimes committed during this war and help build the case for arresting LRA leader Joseph Kony and other top commanders. On the other hand, they were also a key factor in Kony’s calculation not to sign the peace agreement, out of fear that he would be sent to The Hague. Based on these factors, experts disagree on whether or not the warrants will ultimately serve to advance the long-term interests of justice and peace. Whatever you think, the warrants have been issued, and can’t be withdrawn unless indicted LRA leaders face prosecution in Uganda.

What is Operation Lightning Thunder?

Operation Lightning Thunder was launched on December 14th by the Ugandan government, with backing from the US and regional governments, against LRA bases in DR Congo. It originally was intended to capture Joseph Kony and end the LRA, but has failed. Instead, it triggered LRA reprisal attacks against civilian populations in the area, which have now killed up to 1000 people. The operation is ongoing today, and it is unclear how long it will continue.

What does the renewed violence mean for northern Uganda?

Because the LRA moved their bases into eastern Congo, they are currently unable to return to northern Uganda and resume their atrocities against communities there. It is possible that with time, the LRA will be able to rebuild and return, but in the meantime, northern Uganda remains safe from LRA attacks. However, the process of displaced people returning home and rebuilding their lives has slowed dramatically, as many people fear that a possible return by the LRA might be sooner rather than later.

What is the US role in this military operation?

This military operation would not have happened without US support. Our government brought together the governments of Uganda, South Sudan, and DR Congo to pave the way for the operation to happen, and assisted the Ugandan government in developing its initial strategy. However, our government provided very little in the way of concrete support to the operation to help it succeed.

What is Resolve Uganda's position now?

Short version: The US has both the capacity and obligation to rectify its mistakes and end this crisis.

Long version: Resolve Uganda is advocating for our government to do three key things. First, US leaders should develop a viable strategy to apprehend Kony and implement the peace agreement. Second, the US should use its diplomatic leverage to improve the protection of civilian communities who are vulnerable to LRA attacks. Finally, the US should use humanitarian assistance to help the people who have been victimized by violence in Uganda, South Sudan, DR Congo, and Central African Republic.

Advancing this agenda will save lives and help end this war.

What can I do?

You can take the action necessary to make ending this crisis the priority for our leaders that it should be. We’re lining up an ambitious series of campaigns for 2009 to make this the year the war finally ends, and we’d love for you to be a part of them. By joining us in these efforts or donating to our organization, you’ll be bringing hope to children forgotten by the rest of the world.